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Just do it: reductionism, modelling and black-box forecasting

Smith, Leonard A. and McSharry, Patrick E. (1998) Just do it: reductionism, modelling and black-box forecasting. In: International Workshop on Advanced Black-Box Techniques for Nonlinear Modeling: Theory and Applications, 08 - 10 July 1998, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Belgium.

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Abstract

The reductionist approach has proven a powerful guide for scientific advancement over the last 300 years; constructing the simplest modes consistent with the data remains a goal across the sciences. Yet are there instances where the blind pursuit of “simple” models is doomed from the start? Can we construct tests of internal consistency relating to the minimal duration of data from a given model? In short, if the aim is to model a phenomena, should we just do it or first ponder the possible outcomes? This question is addressed in the context of the datacomp.dat data set.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Official URL: http://www.esat.kuleuven.be/sista/workshop/
Additional Information: ©1998 LA Smith
Library of Congress subject classification: H Social Sciences > H Social Sciences (General)
Sets: Departments > Statistics
Research centres and groups > Centre for the Analysis of Time Series (CATS)
Rights: http://www.lse.ac.uk/library/usingTheLibrary/academicSupport/OA/depositYourResearch.aspx
Date Deposited: 24 Feb 2011 15:24
URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/32782/

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