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Second-Order effects plus Pan-European political swings: an analysis of European parliament elections across time

Hix, Simon and Marsh, Michael (2011) Second-Order effects plus Pan-European political swings: an analysis of European parliament elections across time. Electoral Studies, 30 (1). pp. 4-15. ISSN 0261-3794

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Abstract

After seven waves of European Parliament elections and European Union enlargement to 27 states, the time is ripe to analyse the temporal robustness of the second-order model. We pool all the elections in a single evaluation and also look at election-by-election variations. We analyse changes in party performance over time in all EU states as well as in the 'original 10', to see whether any cross-time changes are driven by the changing composition of the EU. We also look for pan-European trends in each election, as a way identifying 'European effects' distinct from second-order effects. There are few consistent winners and losers, although socialist parties performed worse in the last three elections than their size and government status would predict. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

Item Type: Article
Official URL: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescriptio...
Additional Information: © 2011 Elsevier B.V.
Library of Congress subject classification: J Political Science > JN Political institutions (Europe)
Sets: Departments > Government
Rights: http://www.lse.ac.uk/library/usingTheLibrary/academicSupport/OA/depositYourResearch.aspx
Date Deposited: 10 Dec 2010 12:08
URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/30632/

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