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Fifty years of probabilistic decision analysis: a view from the UK

Morton, Alec and Phillips, Lawrence D. (2009) Fifty years of probabilistic decision analysis: a view from the UK. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 60 . S33-S40. ISSN 0160-5682

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Abstract

In 1959, LJ Savage attended a statistics seminar held in his honour at the University of London, confronting those present with a radically different approach to reasoning about uncertainty. Britain was well placed to respond to Savage, as very similar ideas had been laid out in Britain a full generation earlier, and in the next few decades, British and British-based practitioners and researchers championed a collection of techniques for thinking quantitatively about uncertainty (which we call 'Probabilistic Decision Analysis'), developing practice, and contributing to theoretic knowledge about the underlying psychology and mathematics. This effectively turned a collection of purely theoretical ideas into a practical modelling technology. In the first decade of the 21st century, some 50 years on, these ideas have made a noticeable influence on practice and thinking in various domains, but numerous challenges still remain.

Item Type: Article
Official URL: http://www.orsoc.org.uk/publication/jors.htm
Library of Congress subject classification: H Social Sciences > H Social Sciences (General)
H Social Sciences > HA Statistics
Sets: Research centres and groups > Management Science Group
Rights: http://www.lse.ac.uk/library/usingTheLibrary/academicSupport/OA/depositYourResearch.aspx
Date Deposited: 27 Aug 2009 12:43
URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/25027/

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