Espinoza, Raphael A., Goodhart, Charles and Tsomocos, Dimitrios P. (2007) Endogenous state prices, liquidity, default, and the yield curve. Discussion paper, 583. Financial Markets Group, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK.
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We show, in an exchange economy with default, liquidity constraints and no aggregate uncertainty, that state prices in a complete markets general equilibrium are a function of the supply of liquidity by the Central Bank. Our model is derived along the lines of Dubey and Geanakoplos (1992). Two agents trade goods and nominal assets (Arrow-Debreu (AD) securities) to smooth consumption across periods and future states, in the presence of cashin- advance financing costs. We show that, with Von Neumann-Morgenstern logarithmic utility functions, the price of AD securities, are inversely related to liquidity. The upshot of our argument is that agents’ expectations computed using risk-neutral probabilities give more weight in the states with higher interest rates. This result cannot be found in a Lucas-type representative agent general equilibrium model where there is neither trade or money nor default. Hence, an upward yield curve can be supported in equilibrium, even though short-term interest rates are fairly stable. The risk-premium in the term structure is therefore a pure default risk premium.
|Item Type:||Monograph (Discussion Paper)|
|Additional Information:||© 2007 The Authors|
|Uncontrolled Keywords:||Cash-in-advance constraints, Risk-neutral probabilities, State prices, Term structure of interest rates|
|Library of Congress subject classification:||H Social Sciences > HG Finance
H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
|Journal of Economic Literature Classification System:||G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G12 - Asset Pricing; Trading volume; Bond Interest Rates
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E43 - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates
|Sets:||Research centres and groups > Financial Markets Group (FMG)
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