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Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases

Stainforth, David A., Aina, T., Christensen, C., Collins, M., Faull, N., Frame, D. J., Kettleborough, J. A., Knight, S., Martin, A., Murphy, J. M., Piani, C., Sexton, D., Smith, Leonard A., Spicer, R. A., Thorpe, A. J. and Allen, M. R. (2005) Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases. Nature, 433 (7024). pp. 403-406. ISSN 0028-0836

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Abstract

The range of possibilities for future climate evolution needs to be taken into account when planning climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. This requires ensembles of multi-decadal simulations to assess both chaotic climate variability and model response uncertainty. Statistical estimates of model response uncertainty, based on observations of recent climate change, admit climate sensitivities—defined as the equilibrium response of global mean temperature to doubling levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide—substantially greater than 5 K. But such strong responses are not used in ranges for future climate change because they have not been seen in general circulation models. Here we present results from the 'climateprediction.net' experiment, the first multi-thousand-member grand ensemble of simulations using a general circulation model and thereby explicitly resolving regional details. We find model versions as realistic as other state-of-the-art climate models but with climate sensitivities ranging from less than 2 K to more than 11 K. Models with such extreme sensitivities are critical for the study of the full range of possible responses of the climate system to rising greenhouse gas levels, and for assessing the risks associated with specific targets for stabilizing these levels.

Item Type: Article
Official URL: http://www.nature.com/nature/archive/index.html
Additional Information: © 2005 Nature Publishing Group
Library of Congress subject classification: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
Q Science > QC Physics
Sets: Research centres and groups > Centre for the Analysis of Time Series (CATS)
Departments > Statistics
Rights: http://www.lse.ac.uk/library/usingTheLibrary/academicSupport/OA/depositYourResearch.aspx
Date Deposited: 31 Oct 2008 10:17
URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/16922/

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