Library Header Image
LSE Research Online LSE Library Services

Extending the limits of ensemble forecast verification with the minimum spanning tree

Smith, Leonard A. and Hansen, James A. (2004) Extending the limits of ensemble forecast verification with the minimum spanning tree. Monthly Weather Review, 132 (6). pp. 1522-1528. ISSN 0027-0644

Full text not available from this repository.
Identification Number: 10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132<1522:ETLOEF>2.0.CO;2


Uncertainty in the initial condition is one of the factors that limits the utility of single-model-run predictions of even deterministic nonlinear systems. In practice, an ensemble of initial conditions is often used to generate forecasts with the dual aims of 1) estimating the reliability of the forecasts and 2) estimating the probability distribution of the future state of the system. Current rank histogram ensemble verification techniques can only evaluate scalars drawn from ensembles and associated verification; a new method is presented that allows verification in high-dimensional spaces, including those of the verifications for 10^6 dimensional numerical weather prediction forecasts.

Item Type: Article
Official URL:
Additional Information: © American Meteorological Society 2004
Divisions: Centre for Analysis of Time Series
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > G Geography (General)
G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
Sets: Research centres and groups > Centre for the Analysis of Time Series (CATS)
Departments > Statistics
Date Deposited: 29 Sep 2008 12:25
Last Modified: 20 Sep 2021 01:59

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item