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Extending the limits of ensemble forecast verification with the minimum spanning tree

Smith, Leonard A. and Hansen, James A. (2004) Extending the limits of ensemble forecast verification with the minimum spanning tree. Monthly Weather Review, 132 (6). pp. 1522-1528. ISSN 0027-0644

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Abstract

Uncertainty in the initial condition is one of the factors that limits the utility of single-model-run predictions of even deterministic nonlinear systems. In practice, an ensemble of initial conditions is often used to generate forecasts with the dual aims of 1) estimating the reliability of the forecasts and 2) estimating the probability distribution of the future state of the system. Current rank histogram ensemble verification techniques can only evaluate scalars drawn from ensembles and associated verification; a new method is presented that allows verification in high-dimensional spaces, including those of the verifications for 10^6 dimensional numerical weather prediction forecasts.

Item Type: Article
Official URL: http://www.ametsoc.org/pubs/journals/mwr/
Additional Information: © American Meteorological Society 2004
Library of Congress subject classification: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > G Geography (General)
G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
Sets: Research centres and groups > Centre for the Analysis of Time Series (CATS)
Departments > Statistics
Rights: http://www.lse.ac.uk/library/usingTheLibrary/academicSupport/OA/depositYourResearch.aspx
Date Deposited: 29 Sep 2008 12:25
URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/16918/

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